ELECTORAL VOTES NEEDED FOR KERRY

Based on the map at http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,7324127.flash


Over 200 electoral votes are up for grabs this election. The state polls tell the tale, and I've seen them fluctuate as much nine points from one day to the next.

Kerry currently leads in the following states:

(electoral votes) [percentage points]

Michigan (17) [+6]
Ohio (20) [+5]
Pennsylvania (21) [+5]
New Jersey (15) [+8]
Washington (11) [+5]
Oregon (7) [+5]
New Mexico (5) [+2]
New Hampshire (4) [+9]
Maine (4) [+3]

These gives Kerry 253 electoral votes.

States where the two are exactly tied (w/in 1 point):

Minnesota (10)
Arkansas (6)
Iowa (7)
Florida (27)

If Kerry takes Minnesota and Iowa, game over. If Kerry takes Florida, game over.

States within 2-3 points:

Wisconsin (10) [trails by 3 pts]